Hero BTN with Q♣Q♥

The math

GTO answer: Fold

Live live $1/$2 UTG who limped, called preflop, called flop, then donks the turn K. This action sequence is enormously weighted to value. Live players do not turn made hands into bluffs and rarely barrel as a bluff after calling the flop. QQ is way behind Kx, JJ, 99, and two pair. You have two outs to a set. Calling 10bb to win 31bb with 4% equity is a punt. Raise is worse, you are isolating into the nuts. Fold. The lesson, in live games the donk lead on a card that completes top pair is value 90% of the time.

Tags: turn live family pot QQ fold donk