ICM Deal Calculator

ICM: your chips are not worth face value

At a final table, a chip leader with 60% of the chips does not have a 60% claim on the prize pool. In a typical top-heavy payout structure, they might have 45-50%. The gap between chip equity and dollar equity is what the Independent Chip Model captures, and it is why deals at final tables require a calculation rather than a handshake.

The model

ICM converts chip stacks into prize equity by computing, for each player, the probability of finishing in each paid position, then weighting those probabilities by the payout for each position. The fundamental formula for the probability that player i finishes first is simply their share of the chips in play:

P(i finishes 1st) = chips_i / total_chips

For second place, you sum over all possible first-place finishers (everyone except i) and compute i's probability of winning the remaining chips given each outcome:

P(i finishes 2nd) = sum over j (j not equal i) of [ P(j 1st) * chips_i / (total_chips - chips_j) ]

This recursion continues for each payout position. The dollar equity for player i is then:

$EV(i) = sum over position k of [ P(i finishes k) * payout_k ]

Worked example

Three players remain. Payouts: 1st $5,000, 2nd $3,000, 3rd $2,000. Stacks: Player A has 60,000 chips, Player B has 30,000, Player C has 10,000. Total: 100,000.

• P(A 1st) = 60%, P(B 1st) = 30%, P(C 1st) = 10%
• ICM equity: A = approximately $3,900, B = approximately $2,700, C = approximately $2,400

Notice that Player C, with only 10% of the chips, still has $2,400 in ICM equity because guaranteed third place is worth $2,000 and they have some chance of a higher finish. A chip-chop (proportional split) would give A $6,000, B $3,000, C $1,000. ICM compresses the distribution sharply relative to chip chop. A proposed deal should land between those two extremes, with the exact split depending on negotiation from an informed starting point.

What each output means

ICM equity per player is the theoretically correct dollar value of each stack right now, as if the tournament ended with perfectly probabilistic outcomes. Chip chop is the naive proportional split: a useful comparison column because most live final tables still negotiate around it. Current equity deal is a hybrid where one player retains the full first-place payout and the remainder is ICM-distributed, accounting for the value of playing it out. The sensitivity display answers the key negotiating question: if one player doubles up at the expense of another, how much does each player's equity shift?

Where the model breaks

ICM assumes all players have equal skill. In practice, a short stack with a significant skill edge over the field has more future equity than pure ICM suggests. This is partially addressed by the Future Game Simulation (FGS) model, which simulates future hand outcomes rather than treating the tournament as ending immediately. FGS generally gives a larger stack more credit for their ability to accumulate further chips and widens the equity gap relative to basic ICM.

The model also assumes play is at a single table. In multi-table situations near the bubble, ICM pressure from distant tables affects your optimal strategy in ways a static calculator cannot model.

Progressive knockout structures add a complication the standard model ignores: bounty equity is tied to specific eliminations, not just prize pool position. A player with a huge bounty on their head creates additional expected value for opponents that pure stack-size calculations miss entirely. See the risk of ruin calculator for how bankroll sizing interacts with ICM-heavy tournament formats, and the EV calculator for working out specific in-hand decisions near the bubble.

Advanced: ICM pressure and deal timing

The most common mistake at live final tables is proposing a deal when you have the chip lead. ICM rewards survival, which means chip leaders consistently overestimate their value relative to a deal, while short stacks with a pay jump looming are undervalued by ICM due to the "bust out and lose the pay jump" pressure. A deal proposed by the chip leader is almost always a deal that favors the chip leader less than chip-chop would, but the short stacks often accept anyway due to risk aversion. Understand where your stack sits in the ICM pressure hierarchy before you open the conversation.