ICM explained

The Independent Chip Model converts tournament chip stacks into dollar equities. It's the difference between thinking "I have 30% of the chips, I should win 30% of the prize pool" and thinking correctly.

What ICM actually does

ICM treats your stack share as your probability of finishing first. Once first is decided, it removes the first-place player and recalculates everyone else's probability of finishing second from their share of the remaining chips, and so on. Multiply each finishing probability by the prize for that finish, sum them up, and you have your ICM dollar equity.

The output: chip leaders are worth less than their share of the prize pool would suggest. Short stacks are worth more. Because: doubling your stack from 10% to 20% doesn't double your chance of winning, it just makes you slightly less likely to bust on the bubble.

Why ICM changes how you play

The dollar value of survival is high. The dollar value of additional chips above your current position is low. That means: 1) bubbles and pay jumps demand tighter calling ranges than a chip-EV view would suggest, 2) chip leaders should apply pressure on medium stacks who can't afford to call light, 3) medium stacks should fold spots they'd call in a cash game.

The ICM deal calculator on this site uses the Malmuth-Harville recursive formula and handles final-table chops to the cent. For an extensive worked example with 8-handed Sunday Million math, see our Sunday Million ICM walkthrough.