Pure equity says call, AKo is 51% vs a 12bb UTG bubble shove range. But this is the bubble and BB still has to act behind with 28bb. If you call and BB wakes up, you are in a 3-way all-in for your tournament life on the bubble, where the worst result (busting fourth for nothing) is catastrophic. ICM crushes your calling range here. Fold AKo, let BB sort it out, ladder into the money. This is one of the most counterintuitive folds in poker and one of the most profitable. Yes, you have a hand. Yes, you fold it. ICM trumps chip EV on the bubble.

BB behind with 28bb

Multi-way Preflop | 3-way: BTN | 35bb effective | Difficulty: Expert

Players in hand: UTG (short, 12bb), Hero (BTN, 35bb), BB (28bb)

Hero hand

A♥K♣

Board

(preflop)

Action so far:
UTG shoves 12bb on bubble
Hero BTN with A♥K♣, 35bb effective
BB behind with 28bb

Pot: 13.5bb To call: 12bb

Villain range: UTG bubble shove range with 12bb: 66+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo. AKo has 51% vs this.

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BB behind with 28bb

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