River K♦ (paired top): MP overbets 72bb into 44bb
Multi-way River | 4-way: BTN | 100bb effective | Difficulty: Expert
Players in hand: UTG, MP, Hero (BTN), BB
Hero hand
Board
Action so far:
PF: 4-way, Hero set-mined 55 from BTN
Flop K♥5♥3♣: MP bets, Hero flats with set
Turn 2♠: MP barrels, Hero flats
River K♦ (paired top): MP overbets 72bb into 44bb
Pot: 44bb To call: 72bb
Villain range: MP open-bet-bet-overbet line: KK (now quads), AK, KQs, K5s/K3s (boats), AhAh flush, occasional bluff like JhTh
Your move:
The math
GTO answer: Fold
Set of fives turned full house when the river paired the king: 5-5-5-K-K, fives full of kings. MP's three-street line including a river overbet is polarized to KK quads, K5/K3/K2 boats, and bluffs (rare on this runout). Ordinary Kx makes only trip kings, which we beat. Against the value side (KK quads + K5/K3/K2 boats) we lose; against everything else we win. The combo count of beating hands is small but the overbet jam sizing skews polar. With deep stacks and the pot odds (44 to 72), the fold is correct because the value-bluff ratio at this sizing favors value. Fold.
Tags: river MW set into boat paired top
