River 7♣ (paired): UTG checks

The math

GTO answer: Bet 22bb

Nut flush on a paired river. The 7c pairs the board and unlocks boats from TT and 88, but UTG's range still contains many smaller flushes. Bet 22bb (about 60 percent pot). We get value from KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, Ah-x flushes, and the occasional Tx that calls light. Yes, we lose to TT and 88 boats, but the flush combos outweigh boats by roughly 4 to 1 in UTG's check-call line. Thin value bet.

Tags: river MW nut flush thin value paired board